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재밌는투자
2011년 5월 30일 월요일
arm
머니투데이 최종일 기자 기자의 다른 기사보기nbspnbspnbsp입력 : 2011.05.30 20:32|조회 : 1488
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영국의 반도체 설계 업체 ARM이 태블릿PC 시장의 성장에 힘입어 모바일 디바이스 시장 점유율을 현재 10%에서 2015년까지 50%로 올릴 계획이라고 밝혔다고 블룸버그통신이 30일 보도했다.
애플의 아이폰을 포함해 대부분의 휴대폰에 들어가는 칩을 설계하는 ARM은 또 2020년까지 자사의 설계칩 출하량이 현재 250억개에서 1500억개로 증가할 것으로 내다봤다.
튜더 브라운 ARM 사장은 타이페이에서 열리고 있는 컴퓨텍스 2011(Computex 2011)에서 기자회견을 열고 이같이 밝혔다. 그는 아울러 ARM이 설계한 칩을 장착한 구글의 노트북PC인 크롬북이 올해 시장에 선을 보일 것이라고 말했다.
자본 앞세운 대기업 골목 간식까지 탐내다
쏘나타·K5 하이브리드 돌풍…배터리·중고차값은?
기아차 새 박스카 TAM 아파트 주차장에서 포착
삼성SDI 태양광 대신 아몰레드 내준다? 주가급락
quot대전 땅값 과학벨트가 40% 올렸다quot
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3만세대 강남신도시 1억에 3채 미니오피스텔 분양
저금리 고물가 시대에 안정적인 노후대책 1순위 수익형 부동산이 최고라는데 어디로 가면 웃으며 투자해서 마음편히 월세를 받을 수 있을까? 의왕시 내손동 롯데마트건너편에 더존홈스텔을 분양한다. 시행사는 (주) 더조은이며 46실을 준공완료후 실내인테리어가 마감되어 입주가능하고 바로 월세를 받을 수 있다.
[주식대출] 마이너스대출로 연 6.9% 확정금리(연장수수료 없음) 절찬리 판매중 ☎ 1577-5852
lt저작권자 copy lsquo돈이 보이는 리얼타임 뉴스rsquo 머니투데이 무단전재 및 재배포 금지gt
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2011년 4월 27일 수요일
마지막 비관론자의 투항 "시장이 너무 강하다" 데이빗 로젠버그
마지막 비관론자의 투항 "시장이 너무 강하다"
- 머니투데이 권성희 기자 기자의 다른 기사보기 입력 : 2011.04.28 11:10|조회 : 829
뉴욕 증시는 2009년 3월 저점 대비 90% 급등했으나 로젠버그는 경제가 취약하고 투자자 심리도 이러한 거침없는 랠리를 정당화할 만큼 낙관적이지 않다며 랠리의 지속성을 확신하지 못했다.
이 때문에 2년 이상 투자자들에게 랠리를 믿지 말고 디플레이션 위험이 훨씬 더 크다며 채권에 투자하라고 조언해왔다.
그러나 로젠버그는 이날 투자자들에게 보내는 메일에서 "항복은 아니지만 순수하게 기술적이고 전술적인 관점에서 현재 시장의 내부 기조가 탄탄하다는 사실을 인식했다"고 밝혔다.
또 미국 국내총생산(GDP) 성장률의 하향 조정과 상품 가격 상승, 일본 대지진 이후 공급망 차질, 유럽의 부채 위기 등의 악재에 투자자들이 얼마나 무심하게 반응하고 있는지 놀라고 있다고 고백했다.
로젠버그는 "미국 달러는 아래로 향하는 편도 승차권"이라며 "모든 사람들이 달러 약세가 지속될 것으로 예상하고 있으며 이는 글로벌 유동성과 리스크 투자에 유리한 것으로 여겨지고 있다"고 지적했다.
그는 미국의 소비가 취약하다는 점과 중국의 인플레이션과 증시 약세를 우려하긴 하지만 증시가 "중요한 기술적 분기점에 도달했다"고 판단한다며 "기술적 저항선을 극복하면 주가 상승이 추가 상승을 이끌게 된다"고 말했다.
뉴욕증권거래소(NYSE)의 거래량은 여전히 부진하지만 나스닥지수가 지난 26일 50일 이동평균선을 상향 돌파했다는 점이 기술적으로 중요하다는 지적이다. 기술주 상승에 대해 로젠버그는 큰 손들이 돈을 집어넣고 있다는 분명한 신호"라고 밝혔다.
아울러 증시는 여러 가지 장애물에도 불구하고 "우려의 벽(Wall of worry)"을 타고 계속 올라갈 것이라고 전망했다.
로젠버그는 "시장의 내부 기조는 지금 무시할 수 없을 만큼 강하다"며 "NYSE에서는 평균 3 대 1의 비율로 상승 종목이 더 많으며 다우 교통지수가 급등하고 소형주가 상대적으로 더 오르고 있다"고 말했다.
따라서 "주요한 걱정거리가 사라진 것은 아니지만 시장의 내부 기조가 무시할 수 없을 만큼 탄탄하다"고 덧붙였다.
2011년 4월 14일 목요일
John Paulson On The Worst Case Scenario For The The U.S. Economy
John Paulson On The Worst Case Scenario For The The U.S. Economy
John Paulson made three important points when he spoke to Les Echos, a French publication, recently.
1. Financial reform could hinder the recovery. It is text-heavy (2,000 pages!) and thought to be very difficult to implement. It was precipitated by an emotional reaction. The result is that it creates numerous conflicts and uncertainties. As Alan Greenspan says, I think it will create market distortions.
2. Inflation is a risk. Quantitative recovery is not without consequences and creates the potential for inflation. Currently we have no inflation because we still have overcapacity. But the risk exists. It is undeniable that this monetary expansion is equivalent to running the printing press. It remains to be seen whether the Fed will reduce the recovery before it becomes inflationary.
3. U.S. debt levels will sooner or later reach a "very serious" problematic threshold. There are serious uncertainties about the exit strategy of the Fed. I'd be very surprised if there was a third round of QE. While many economists believe that the U.S. debt remains at a manageable level, sooner or later it will reach a threshold that will be a problem. Today, our federal debt is still at a relatively reasonable (around 65% of GDP), but if we add the local debt of the States and local governments are approaching the level of 100% of GDP which begins to be close to that of Greece or Portugal. It is a very serious potential problem. The U.S. does not have the ability of unlimited borrowings.
Click here to see John Paulson's entire interview (on Zerohedge) >
Note: Paulson also talked his book a bit (he's betting on a housing recovery and gold strength):
"The major risk for the U.S. recovery is stagnating housing market."
"We must look at the currencies in relative terms. The UK is committed in the same way that the United States in terms of monetary stimulus. The euro has its own problems. In these times of uncertainty for paper based currency, I feel more secure in holding gold. Given the risks of inflation in three to five years and the volatility of the euro, gold offers good protection against the paper currencies devaluation and even the possibility of generating a return on fixed investment.
Also interesting: 40% of Paulson's investors chose to invest in his gold-denominated fund. Only 3% of the Paulson fund's assets are invested in gold.
2011년 4월 12일 화요일
Cramer's View of the Market Is Now 'Grim'
Cramer's View of the Market Is Now 'Grim'
Web Producer
Two headwinds have ended Cramer's 18 months of "bullishness" and left him with a more "grim" view of the market, he said Monday.
Why is he becoming less bullish on the markets?
Well, an investor's worldview decides how much he or she is willing to pay for earnings, the "Mad Money" host explained. One with a negative worldview, for example, will be less willing to pay up for a company's projected earnings, he said. Those who think the economy is deteriorating will pay less for stocks.
"After 18 months of incredible bullishness, my worldview has just become a lot more grim," Cramer said, adding that he thinks individual stocks can still go higher, though.
There have been numerous takeover bids in the past few days, which has helped nullify some of his negative worldview. Stocks can also get a boost when analysts issue an upgrade, although Cramer doesn't think they're worth banking on. Companies can help their stocks to go higher by boosting dividends, as McCormick [MRK 33.56 -0.03 (-0.09%)
] and Freeport-McMoRan [FCX 53.70
-1.74 (-3.14%)
] have recently. Other companies can help their stocks by spinning off lagging businesses. In some cases, a company's stock can be helped by purchasing a lagging business, as Diamond Foods [DMND 60.63
0.54 (+0.9%)
] had with its purchase of Procter & Gamble's [PG 62.89
0.70 (+1.13%)
] Pringles.
The market could either be exuberant or muted to good news, Cramer said. It all depends upon the "big picture," which sets the overall tone for the market. For the last 18 months, Cramer thought the big picture was "terrific." During that time, the market was being helped by the monetary policies of Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, he said. The market has now run into two significant headwinds, though: higher oil prices and the debt ceiling.
"Higher oil means higher costs for businesses in so many ways. It means a slowdown in new autos, as people associate not buying a new car, or switching to mass transit, with saving money and offsetting the increased cost of gasoline," Cramer said. "It means higher gas, which means a tax on the consumer, making it too difficult for people to afford Lobsterfest at Darden's [DRI 46.86 0.17 (+0.36%)
] Red Lobster."
A decline in oil prices on Monday helped consumers avoid seeing the price for a gallon of gas skyrocket to $4. It is critical for the health of the economy that gas not go that high, Cramer said. He wants to see oil prices fall below $100 a barrel.
Meanwhile, Cramer is concerned about the debt ceiling, too. The U.S. government borrows trillions of dollars to finance spending on things like Social Security and the military, Cramer explained. If other countries try the U.S. to keep its fiscal house in order, though, they could demand the U.S. raise interest rates. Businesses borrow money every day and at a higher rate than the government. A rate hike would not only affect businesses, but it would make selling the old housing inventory more difficult. Homebuilding would be further delayed and companies would be less likely to start aggressively hiring again.
To Cramer, if oil continues to climb and the debt ceiling isn't raised, it won't matter what action Bernanke takes. These two outside forces will make investors pay less for stocks, or sell them en masse. For that reason, Cramer suggests investors sell into strength.
2011년 4월 10일 일요일
Why Cramer's Taking a Slightly Bearish Tone
Why Cramer's Taking a Slightly Bearish Tone
Web Producer
It's tough to figure out what's more important next week, Cramer said Friday: surging oil prices or the start to earnings season.
After all, the "Mad Money" host has long said he would become less bullish should oil surpass $110 a barrel. On Friday, oil prices jumped to new records amid attacks on Libyan oil fields and the sinking dollar. U.S. light crude [CLCV1 112.89 0.10 (+0.09%)
] rose $2.49 to settle at $112.79 a barrel, which is its highest close since September 2008.
When oil soared in 2008, the U.S. economy plunged into a downturn that it's only recently started recovering from, Cramer said. So with oil again surging into dangerously high levels, he recommends being cautious and raising cash.
With that in mind, Cramer outlined his "Game Plan" for the week of Monday, April 11.
MONDAY, APRIL 11
The week begins with an earnings report from Alcoa [AA 17.92 -0.20 (-1.1%)
]. Some Wall Street firms have cut estimates ahead of this quarter, Cramer noted. He doesn't expect a blow-out quarter from the aluminum maker, but he does think its outlook is improving because of a new aerospace cycle. After all, the Pittsburgh-based company makes screws for airplanes. He thinks it is also being helped by the resurgence in gas plant construction, which has great demand for aluminum.
TUESDAY, APRIL 12
Of the many initial public offerings this week, Cramer likes Zipcar, a car sharing service. He likes that Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are involved and expects a lot of growth out of this name.
Arcos Dorados will also go public. The world's largest McDonald's [MCD 76.04 0.03 (+0.04%)
] franchisee, it has 1,755 locations in the Caribbean and Latin America and boasts $3 billion in sales, Cramer noted.
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 13
JPMorgan Chase [JPM 46.84 -0.56 (-1.18%)
] is scheduled to report earnings before Wednesday's opening bell. This stock has been on a big run lately, so Cramer's not sure what executives could say to drive it higher. With the price of oil continuing to climb, gas prices will also rise and act as a tax on consumers. For that reason, Cramer can't be bullish on JPM now.
THURSDAY, APRIL 14
Internet giant Google [GOOG 578.16 -1.84 (-0.32%)
] will report earnings on Thursday. Although this stock trades at roughly $580 a share, Cramer thinks it's actually cheap. Just back out the cash and look at its growth rate, he said. Still, he's not sure he would invest in GOOG right now. He doesn't like to buy shares of companies that have recently made changes to management.
FRIDAY, APRIL 15
Finally, Bank of America [BAC 13.48 -0.13 (-0.96%)
] will release earnings ahead of Friday's market open. Cramer wants to know why the company has never announced plans to sell a dividend.
2011년 3월 2일 수요일
kass가 맞으면 난리난다.
Doug Kass: Market Generating Definitive Sell Signal
Producer
We know why you like Fast Money; the desk brings you a wide range of trading ideas from some of the Street's most celebrated figures.
On Wednesday the Fast traders turned to strategic investor and CNBC contributor Doug Kass, president of Seabreeze Partners for his insights.
Kass is widely followed for his market timing. He correctly called a bottom last summer and also predicted the crisis lows in March 2009.
In a live interview we asked Kass about the sell-off, Yahoo! and a company that Warren Buffett may want to buy. As you can imagine he had lots of ideas. They all follow:
Market Generating Definitive Sell Signal
It’s no secret that Kass is bearish, he’s been skeptical of the rally for quite some time. And he remains convinced that the market is heading lower. He cites both fundamental and technical signals.
Looking at fundamentals, he thinks Street estimates are too high broadly because “energy prices will maintain at elevated levels and commodities prices are rising.”
In other words, he doesn’t think price targets take into account the ripple from higher oil. “Already we’re seeing sequential rate of growth and operating profits slowing.”
And Kass thinks technical signals are equally negative. Kass points to the Farrell Sentiment Index to support his thesis.
This technical measure “takes the number of bulls in the market (as reported by the American Assoc of Individual Investors) and divides by the bears plus half the neutrals,” explains Kass.
”When the ratio is under .50 and rising it’s a bullish signal. When it’s over 1.5 it’s bearish and the ratio rose to 1.50 on the week of January 14th – a definitive sell signal,” says Kass.
Buffett Buying Spree
As you may remember Warren Buffett made headlines a few days back after he said in his widely read annual letter the conglomerate was looking to make "major acquisitions."
And with Berkshire Hathaway's cash holdings totaling $38 billion at the end of the year, how will he put that money to work?
It wouldn’t surprise Doug Kass if the Oracle of Omaha buys Colgate Palmolive [CL 77.30 -0.34 (-0.44%)
].
Because Kass believes the market is fragile he only thinks a few sectors are going to hold on. “Staples and necessities,” he says.
Kass thinks that's something Buffett will factor into his next move. “And with Buffett looking for another target, I suspect a large consumer products company is on his menu,” he says. "I wouldn't be surprised if he (buys) a company as large as Colgate Palmolive."
Shout Yahoo for Yahoo!
Shares of Yahoo [YHOO 16.63 0.53 (+3.29%)
] jumped Wednesday after a published report said the Internet company is in talks to sell its stake in the independently operated Yahoo Japan for up to $8 billion.
Although he didn't say outright if he was still expecting a deal he did tell the desk, "Microsoft has related that the search integration with Yahoo is going better than expected."
In addition, he thinks it's positive that “Yahoo management has indicated that the company is exploring alternatives and the company’s core business is improving.”
Kass tells us that he’s still holding onto Yahoo.
Kass: It Ain't a Popularity Contest
This blog post originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on March 1 at 7:56 a.m. EST.
More from Doug Kass
The most popular investment places often yield the most disappointing returns.
In recent years, three examples come to mind -- money market funds, U.S. fixed income and emerging market equities.
- In the 2008-09 bull market in risk aversion -- leading into and coincident with the stock market crash -- money market funds rose to a record $4 trillion. Stocks proceeded to double from March 2009 to the present as a preference for cash was exactly the wrong strategy.
- Following 10 years of material outperformance of fixed income over equities, record inflows into bonds accumulated during 2009-10 as investors sought safety and yield following the Great Recession. Once again, the asset of choice -- bonds -- fared poorly even as inflows accumulated. Bond yields rose and bond prices fell, despite the Federal Reserve announcement and implementation of QE2.
- During 2009-10, when the investment outlook began to clear, all of the incremental retail inflows were committed into nondeveloping foreign markets. But beginning in early 2010, emerging markets began to underperform the U.S. stock market. And by November 2010, that underperformance grew more conspicuous as the most popular strategy again let investors down.
Over the past few months, retail inflows have begun to move into U.S. stocks (and have redeemed out of money market funds and municipal bonds) as investors have arguably been emboldened by the great performance of U.S. stocks. Indeed in January 2011, more than $11 billion flowed into domestic equity funds. January's investment in domestic stock funds represented the largest amount of retail inflows since mid-2009 and likely explains the consistency of the market's advance in 2011 (and the absence of any meaningful correction even in the face of some adverse geopolitical developments that have contributed to a large hike in energy prices).
Bulls argue -- and there is merit to the view -- that though stocks have doubled, it is early in the increased retail appetite and popularity for U.S. stocks. In support, they observe that in the four-year period ended December 2010, retail investors liquidated more than $300 billion in domestic stock funds while purchasing $750 billion of bonds, bringing retail exposure to equities to relatively low historical levels.
I have argued and continue to argue that the investment shock of 2008-09 runs deep and will serve to limit retail inflows. Moreover, unlike almost any other time in history, the non-upper-income investor class may not be positioned economically to invest in equities to the degree the bulls expect. That investor class faces unique economic challenges and conditions and lower confidence in the form of an unprecedented drop in home prices (which has damaged the consumer's balance sheet), still high (though improving) debt ratios, the insecurity brought on by structural unemployment (and an elevated jobless rate) and the screwflation of the middle class (as the cost of the necessities of life have risen during a period in which wages have stagnated, serving to depress disposable incomes).
In summary, the recent increased commitment to domestic stock funds may disappoint and may not prove durable, and -- as was the case of money market funds, emerging market equities and fixed income -- the renewed popularity of domestic equities may not pay off in the fullness of time.
Caveat emptor.