2010년 6월 27일 일요일

Pros and Cons

Bullish
1. the thread of A a BP collapse doesn't fundamentally threaten global market.
2. Global liquidity : The 1 trillian EU stimulus package.
3. upcoming congressional elections in November should mean another extension of the first time home buyer tax credit.
4. the Job market will improve.
5. technological innovation will provide at least a partial fix.
6. consumer spending is not dead
Bearish
1. poor outlook for small business
the small business makes up more than 50% of non-farm GDP.
2. cash outflows are trending poorly
3. Tax cut expiration
4. deflatoin
5. high unemployment
6. commercial real estate crash
7. housing double dip
8. financial insititution are tied to the housing market.
9. ugliest chart of all time

conclusion
1. If we get some tax cuts or stimulus, markets may hang on.
2. The global economy is weak patient that is attempting to come off of stimulus life.
It is vulnerable to being overwhelmed by an minor event.

댓글 없음:

댓글 쓰기