How Big will the housing double dip be?

There seems to be a growing consensus that home prices are headed down, not up, in the absence of free money from Uncle Sam, the only important question being the magnitude of the decline. Housing Wirereports on a few of the latest analysts’ estimates including Moody’s where the chart below was offered.

The “vicious cycle” potential is clear to see in the two possible scenarios depicted above – either prices hold relatively firm, in which case, it’s just an extended flatlining for home values, or a real double-dip occurs where prices plummet 20 percent or more. They’ve increase the odds of the latter from one-in-five to one-in-four.