A curious financial market development in recent weeks has been the near-lockstep moves by stock and bond prices, two asset classes that, most of the time, move in opposite directions as investor sentiment swings between fear (bonds) and greed (stocks).
Shown below is the S&P500 stock index alongside the ten-year treasury yield, two curves that normally move together since changes in bond yields are the inverse of bond prices.
Over the last year, when looking at periods that span weeks, not days, these two curves have largely traced out the same pattern with only two important exceptions – early-April and over the last two or three weeks.
Investors in “risk” assets such as stocks and commodities may want to look closely at what followed the early-April period, namely, the global sell-off in May. That the most unfriendly month of the year for stocks – September – is right around the corner, would seem to increase the odds of an unfavorable outcome for equities as was the case earlier.
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